Water AlliesTier 1
at Yeti Webcam Weekly
decks
3
(4.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
5-4-3
overall winrate
54.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.3%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
54.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1469
· median 1517
· range 1364–1527
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1000
Q1 1198
Q3 1383
1656
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 51.5% | +1.4 |
| Wind Allies | 9.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.3% | -0.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Neos | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arcane | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.8% | -2.0 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.1% | +1.1 |
| Water Tristan | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
